Uni Azzurri vs Darwin Rovers — League #193 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Uni Azzurri4%
Darwin Rovers90%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Darwin Rovers creates 326% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over96
- Under4
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes73
- No27
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Uni Azzurri ↓
Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 50% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Uni Azzurri at home — creates 1.33, concedes 5.67 · 3 matches
Darwin Rovers away — creates 5.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Uni Azzurri attack 1.33 + Darwin Rovers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33
Darwin Rovers attack 5.67 + Uni Azzurri defence 5.67 → ÷2 → 5.67
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 90%?"
Darwin Rovers at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 90% does not mean "Darwin Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Uni Azzurri host Darwin Rovers on Saturday, 6 May 2017 at 06:30. The match is part of the League #193 2026/2027 season.
League #193: Uni Azzurri 0–9 Darwin Rovers
Darwin Rovers beat Uni Azzurri 9-0 in League #193 on May 6, 2017.
The match was played at Larrakia Park in Darwin.