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UNFP vs Laval — Friendlies Clubs 2026

UNFP
UNFP
FT
3 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Laval
Laval
7/26/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

UNFP20%
×Draw18%
Laval62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNFP
1.44
Laval
2.60

Laval creates 81% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

UNFP
1.67
Laval
2.20

allows per match

UNFP
3.00
Laval
1.20

finishing

UNFP+0.00on par
Laval+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNFP ↓

Laval →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

UNFP or draw
38%
UNFP or Laval
82%
Draw or Laval
80%

Winning margin

UNFP wins by 2+
8%
Laval wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

UNFP 1+ goals
76%
UNFP 2+ goals
42%
UNFP 3+ goals
18%
Laval 1+ goals
92%
Laval 2+ goals
73%
Laval 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

UNFP (draw refunded)
24%
Laval (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNFP at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Laval away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNFP attack 1.67 + Laval defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Laval attack 2.20 + UNFP defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

UNFP scores more
20%
level
18%
Laval scores more
62%

Laval at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Laval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UNFP vs Laval

Laval beat UNFP 5-3 in Friendlies Clubs on July 26, 2025.