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Undrid vs KÍ II — 1. Deild 2019

Undrid
Undrid
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KÍ II
KÍ II
9/3/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 21Hoyvíksvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Undrid48%
×Draw22%
KÍ II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Undrid
1.92
KÍ II
1.47

Undrid creates 31% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 94 away

creates per match

Undrid
1.93
KÍ II
1.86

allows per match

Undrid
1.07
KÍ II
1.90

finishing

Undrid+0.00on par
KÍ II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Undrid ↓

KÍ II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Undrid or draw
70%
Undrid or KÍ II
78%
Draw or KÍ II
52%

Winning margin

Undrid wins by 2+
27%
KÍ II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Undrid 1+ goals
85%
Undrid 2+ goals
57%
Undrid 3+ goals
30%
KÍ II 1+ goals
77%
KÍ II 2+ goals
43%
KÍ II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Undrid (draw refunded)
62%
KÍ II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Undrid at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

KÍ II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.90 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Undrid attack 1.93 + KÍ II defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.92

KÍ II attack 1.86 + Undrid defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Undrid scores more
48%
level
22%
KÍ II scores more
30%

Undrid at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Undrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Undrid 0–1 KÍ II

KÍ II beat Undrid 1-0 in 1. Deild on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Hoyvíksvøllur in Hoyvík.