Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UNAN Managua vs Real Estelí — Primera Division 2026

UNAN Managua
UNAN Managua
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Real Estelí
Real Estelí
3/2/2026Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

UNAN Managua28%
×Draw24%
Real Estelí47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNAN Managua
1.24
Real Estelí
1.67

Real Estelí creates 35% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 150 away

creates per match

UNAN Managua
1.45
Real Estelí
1.67

allows per match

UNAN Managua
1.66
Real Estelí
1.03

finishing

UNAN Managua+0.00on par
Real Estelí+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNAN Managua ↓

Real Estelí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

UNAN Managua or draw
53%
UNAN Managua or Real Estelí
76%
Draw or Real Estelí
72%

Winning margin

UNAN Managua wins by 2+
12%
Real Estelí wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

UNAN Managua 1+ goals
71%
UNAN Managua 2+ goals
35%
UNAN Managua 3+ goals
13%
Real Estelí 1+ goals
81%
Real Estelí 2+ goals
50%
Real Estelí 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

UNAN Managua (draw refunded)
38%
Real Estelí (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNAN Managua at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.66 · 91 matches

Real Estelí away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.03 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNAN Managua attack 1.45 + Real Estelí defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.24

Real Estelí attack 1.67 + UNAN Managua defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UNAN Managua scores more
28%
level
24%
Real Estelí scores more
47%

Real Estelí at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: UNAN Managua 0–3 Real Estelí

Real Estelí beat UNAN Managua 3-0 in Primera Division on March 2, 2026.