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UNAN Managua vs Matagalpa — Primera Division 2026

UNAN Managua
UNAN Managua
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Matagalpa
Matagalpa
8/2/2025Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 4Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

UNAN Managua41%
×Draw24%
Matagalpa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNAN Managua
1.56
Matagalpa
1.40

UNAN Managua creates 11% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 78 away

creates per match

UNAN Managua
1.45
Matagalpa
1.15

allows per match

UNAN Managua
1.66
Matagalpa
1.68

finishing

UNAN Managua+0.00on par
Matagalpa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNAN Managua ↓

Matagalpa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

UNAN Managua or draw
66%
UNAN Managua or Matagalpa
76%
Draw or Matagalpa
59%

Winning margin

UNAN Managua wins by 2+
20%
Matagalpa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

UNAN Managua 1+ goals
79%
UNAN Managua 2+ goals
46%
UNAN Managua 3+ goals
21%
Matagalpa 1+ goals
75%
Matagalpa 2+ goals
41%
Matagalpa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

UNAN Managua (draw refunded)
55%
Matagalpa (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNAN Managua at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.66 · 91 matches

Matagalpa away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNAN Managua attack 1.45 + Matagalpa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.56

Matagalpa attack 1.15 + UNAN Managua defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

UNAN Managua scores more
41%
level
24%
Matagalpa scores more
34%

UNAN Managua at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UNAN Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: UNAN Managua 2–2 Matagalpa

UNAN Managua and Matagalpa drew 2-2 in Primera Division on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol in Managua.