UNAN Managua 3–0 Deportivo Ocotal: Result & Stats

UNAN Managua

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Ocotal

9/20/2024

Primera Division · Apertura - 7Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

UNAN Managua52%

×Draw23%

Deportivo Ocotal25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UNAN ManaguaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Ocotal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.26

UNAN Managua

1.89

Deportivo Ocotal

1.26

UNAN Managua creates 50% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 112 away

1.45

creates per match

0.86

1.66

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

UNAN Managua

1.45

Deportivo Ocotal

0.86

allows per match

UNAN Managua

1.66

Deportivo Ocotal

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UNAN Managua+0.00on par

Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNAN Managua ↓

Deportivo Ocotal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

UNAN Managua or draw

75%

UNAN Managua or Deportivo Ocotal

77%

Draw or Deportivo Ocotal

48%

Winning margin

UNAN Managua wins by 2+

29%

Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

UNAN Managua 1+ goals

85%

UNAN Managua 2+ goals

56%

UNAN Managua 3+ goals

29%

Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

UNAN Managua (draw refunded)

67%

Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNAN Managua at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.66 · 91 matches

Deportivo Ocotal away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.33 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNAN Managua attack 1.45 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.89

Deportivo Ocotal attack 0.86 + UNAN Managua defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

UNAN Managua scores more

52%

level

23%

Deportivo Ocotal scores more

25%

UNAN Managua at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "UNAN Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff