Unami 1–0 Numancia II: Result & Stats

Unami

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Numancia II

4/8/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 28Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Unami41%

×Draw28%

Numancia II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UnamiExpected goals in this matchNumancia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.07

Unami

1.29

Numancia II

1.07

Unami creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 76 away

1.00

creates per match

0.95

1.20

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Unami

1.00

Numancia II

0.95

allows per match

Unami

1.20

Numancia II

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unami+0.00on par

Numancia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unami ↓

Numancia II →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Unami or draw

69%

Unami or Numancia II

72%

Draw or Numancia II

59%

Winning margin

Unami wins by 2+

19%

Numancia II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Unami 1+ goals

72%

Unami 2+ goals

37%

Unami 3+ goals

14%

Numancia II 1+ goals

66%

Numancia II 2+ goals

29%

Numancia II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Unami (draw refunded)

57%

Numancia II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unami at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Numancia II away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unami attack 1.00 + Numancia II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Numancia II attack 0.95 + Unami defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Unami scores more

41%

level

28%

Numancia II scores more

31%

Unami at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Unami will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff