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Unami vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Unami
Unami
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
3/11/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 24Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Unami38%
×Draw28%
La Virgen del Camino34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unami
1.21
La Virgen del Camino
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

creates per match

Unami
1.00
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Unami
1.20
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Unami+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unami ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Unami or draw
66%
Unami or La Virgen del Camino
72%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
62%

Winning margin

Unami wins by 2+
16%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Unami 1+ goals
70%
Unami 2+ goals
34%
Unami 3+ goals
12%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
68%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
31%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Unami (draw refunded)
53%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unami at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unami attack 1.00 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Unami defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Unami scores more
38%
level
28%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
34%

Unami at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Unami will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Unami 1–0 La Virgen del Camino

Unami beat La Virgen del Camino 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Albuera in Segovia.