Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unami vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Unami
Unami
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
12/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 12Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Unami41%
×Draw28%
Becerril Campos32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unami
1.29
Becerril Campos
1.11

Unami creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 97 away

creates per match

Unami
1.00
Becerril Campos
1.02

allows per match

Unami
1.20
Becerril Campos
1.58

finishing

Unami+0.00on par
Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unami ↓

Becerril Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Unami or draw
68%
Unami or Becerril Campos
72%
Draw or Becerril Campos
59%

Winning margin

Unami wins by 2+
18%
Becerril Campos wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Unami 1+ goals
72%
Unami 2+ goals
37%
Unami 3+ goals
14%
Becerril Campos 1+ goals
67%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
30%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Unami (draw refunded)
56%
Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unami at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unami attack 1.00 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + Unami defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Unami scores more
41%
level
28%
Becerril Campos scores more
32%

Unami at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Unami will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Unami 2–1 Becerril Campos

Unami beat Becerril Campos 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Albuera in Segovia.