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UNA vs TOGB — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

UNA
UNA
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TOGB
TOGB
11/10/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 12Sportpark Zeelst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

UNA44%
×Draw24%
TOGB32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNA
1.70
TOGB
1.41

UNA creates 21% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 68 away

creates per match

UNA
1.56
TOGB
1.40

allows per match

UNA
1.42
TOGB
1.84

finishing

UNA+0.00on par
TOGB+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNA ↓

TOGB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

UNA or draw
68%
UNA or TOGB
76%
Draw or TOGB
56%

Winning margin

UNA wins by 2+
23%
TOGB wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

UNA 1+ goals
82%
UNA 2+ goals
51%
UNA 3+ goals
24%
TOGB 1+ goals
76%
TOGB 2+ goals
41%
TOGB 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

UNA (draw refunded)
58%
TOGB (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNA at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.42 · 100 matches

TOGB away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNA attack 1.56 + TOGB defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.70

TOGB attack 1.40 + UNA defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

UNA scores more
44%
level
24%
TOGB scores more
32%

UNA at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "UNA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UNA vs TOGB

UNA beat TOGB 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Zeelst in Veldhoven.