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UNA vs HV & CV Quick — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

UNA
UNA
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
HV & CV Quick
HV & CV Quick
2/9/2025Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 22Sportpark Zeelst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

UNA50%
×Draw23%
HV & CV Quick28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNA
1.84
HV & CV Quick
1.32

UNA creates 39% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 82 away

creates per match

UNA
1.56
HV & CV Quick
1.22

allows per match

UNA
1.42
HV & CV Quick
2.13

finishing

UNA+0.00on par
HV & CV Quick+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNA ↓

HV & CV Quick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

UNA or draw
72%
UNA or HV & CV Quick
77%
Draw or HV & CV Quick
50%

Winning margin

UNA wins by 2+
27%
HV & CV Quick wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UNA 1+ goals
84%
UNA 2+ goals
55%
UNA 3+ goals
28%
HV & CV Quick 1+ goals
73%
HV & CV Quick 2+ goals
38%
HV & CV Quick 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

UNA (draw refunded)
64%
HV & CV Quick (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNA at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.42 · 100 matches

HV & CV Quick away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNA attack 1.56 + HV & CV Quick defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.84

HV & CV Quick attack 1.22 + UNA defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

UNA scores more
50%
level
23%
HV & CV Quick scores more
28%

UNA at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UNA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UNA vs HV & CV Quick

UNA and HV & CV Quick drew 2-2 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Zeelst in Veldhoven.