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UNA vs Groene Ster — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

UNA
UNA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Groene Ster
Groene Ster
10/15/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 9Sportpark Zeelst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

UNA49%
×Draw24%
Groene Ster27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNA
1.70
Groene Ster
1.18

UNA creates 44% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 81 away

creates per match

UNA
1.56
Groene Ster
0.94

allows per match

UNA
1.42
Groene Ster
1.83

finishing

UNA+0.00on par
Groene Ster+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNA ↓

Groene Ster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

UNA or draw
73%
UNA or Groene Ster
76%
Draw or Groene Ster
51%

Winning margin

UNA wins by 2+
27%
Groene Ster wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UNA 1+ goals
82%
UNA 2+ goals
51%
UNA 3+ goals
24%
Groene Ster 1+ goals
69%
Groene Ster 2+ goals
33%
Groene Ster 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

UNA (draw refunded)
65%
Groene Ster (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNA at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.42 · 100 matches

Groene Ster away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNA attack 1.56 + Groene Ster defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.70

Groene Ster attack 0.94 + UNA defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

UNA scores more
49%
level
24%
Groene Ster scores more
27%

UNA at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "UNA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UNA vs Groene Ster

UNA beat Groene Ster 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Zeelst in Veldhoven.