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UNA vs Baronie — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

UNA
UNA
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Baronie
Baronie
2/26/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 23Sportpark Zeelst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

UNA55%
×Draw21%
Baronie24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNA
2.06
Baronie
1.31

UNA creates 57% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 34 away

creates per match

UNA
1.56
Baronie
1.21

allows per match

UNA
1.42
Baronie
2.56

finishing

UNA+0.00on par
Baronie+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNA ↓

Baronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

UNA or draw
76%
UNA or Baronie
79%
Draw or Baronie
45%

Winning margin

UNA wins by 2+
32%
Baronie wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UNA 1+ goals
87%
UNA 2+ goals
61%
UNA 3+ goals
34%
Baronie 1+ goals
73%
Baronie 2+ goals
38%
Baronie 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

UNA (draw refunded)
69%
Baronie (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNA at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.42 · 100 matches

Baronie away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNA attack 1.56 + Baronie defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.06

Baronie attack 1.21 + UNA defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

UNA scores more
55%
level
21%
Baronie scores more
24%

UNA at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "UNA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UNA vs Baronie

Baronie beat UNA 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Zeelst in Veldhoven.