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UNA vs Barendrecht — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

UNA
UNA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Barendrecht
Barendrecht
3/9/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 19Sportpark Zeelst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

UNA32%
×Draw24%
Barendrecht45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNA
1.40
Barendrecht
1.71

Barendrecht creates 22% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

UNA
1.56
Barendrecht
2.00

allows per match

UNA
1.42
Barendrecht
1.24

finishing

UNA+0.00on par
Barendrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNA ↓

Barendrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

UNA or draw
55%
UNA or Barendrecht
76%
Draw or Barendrecht
68%

Winning margin

UNA wins by 2+
14%
Barendrecht wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

UNA 1+ goals
75%
UNA 2+ goals
41%
UNA 3+ goals
17%
Barendrecht 1+ goals
82%
Barendrecht 2+ goals
51%
Barendrecht 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

UNA (draw refunded)
41%
Barendrecht (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNA at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.42 · 100 matches

Barendrecht away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNA attack 1.56 + Barendrecht defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Barendrecht attack 2.00 + UNA defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

UNA scores more
32%
level
24%
Barendrecht scores more
45%

Barendrecht at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Barendrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UNA vs Barendrecht

Barendrecht beat UNA 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Zeelst in Veldhoven.