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UMS de Loum vs Young Sport Academy — Elite One 2019

UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
FT
2 – 1
Young Sport Academy
Young Sport Academy
2/19/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 23Stade Municipal de Loum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

UMS de Loum42%
×Draw31%
Young Sport Academy27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UMS de Loum
1.09
Young Sport Academy
0.80

UMS de Loum creates 36% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 79 away

creates per match

UMS de Loum
0.87
Young Sport Academy
0.94

allows per match

UMS de Loum
0.67
Young Sport Academy
1.32

finishing

UMS de Loum+0.00on par
Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMS de Loum ↓

Young Sport Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

UMS de Loum or draw
73%
UMS de Loum or Young Sport Academy
69%
Draw or Young Sport Academy
58%

Winning margin

UMS de Loum wins by 2+
17%
Young Sport Academy wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UMS de Loum 1+ goals
66%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
30%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
10%
Young Sport Academy 1+ goals
55%
Young Sport Academy 2+ goals
19%
Young Sport Academy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
61%
Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMS de Loum at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.67 · 67 matches

Young Sport Academy away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMS de Loum attack 0.87 + Young Sport Academy defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.09

Young Sport Academy attack 0.94 + UMS de Loum defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

UMS de Loum scores more
42%
level
31%
Young Sport Academy scores more
27%

UMS de Loum at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UMS de Loum vs Young Sport Academy

UMS de Loum beat Young Sport Academy 2-1 in Elite One on February 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Loum in Loum.