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UMS de Loum vs Yafoot — Elite One 2019

UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yafoot
Yafoot
3/20/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 1Limbe Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

UMS de Loum43%
×Draw31%
Yafoot26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UMS de Loum
1.15
Yafoot
0.82

UMS de Loum creates 40% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 31 away

creates per match

UMS de Loum
0.87
Yafoot
0.97

allows per match

UMS de Loum
0.67
Yafoot
1.42

finishing

UMS de Loum+0.00on par
Yafoot+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMS de Loum ↓

Yafoot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

UMS de Loum or draw
74%
UMS de Loum or Yafoot
69%
Draw or Yafoot
57%

Winning margin

UMS de Loum wins by 2+
18%
Yafoot wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UMS de Loum 1+ goals
68%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
32%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
11%
Yafoot 1+ goals
56%
Yafoot 2+ goals
20%
Yafoot 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
62%
Yafoot (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMS de Loum at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.67 · 67 matches

Yafoot away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMS de Loum attack 0.87 + Yafoot defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.15

Yafoot attack 0.97 + UMS de Loum defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

UMS de Loum scores more
43%
level
31%
Yafoot scores more
26%

UMS de Loum at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UMS de Loum vs Yafoot

UMS de Loum beat Yafoot 1-0 in Elite One on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium in Limbe.