UMS de Loum 1–0 Renaissance: Result & Stats

UMS de Loum

FT

1 – 0

Renaissance

11/5/2022

Elite One · Round 4Middle Farm Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

UMS de Loum49%

×Draw29%

Renaissance22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UMS de LoumExpected goals in this matchRenaissance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.74

UMS de Loum

1.27

Renaissance

0.74

UMS de Loum creates 72% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 21 away

0.87

creates per match

0.81

0.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

UMS de Loum

0.87

Renaissance

0.81

allows per match

UMS de Loum

0.67

Renaissance

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMS de Loum ↓

Renaissance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

UMS de Loum or draw

78%

UMS de Loum or Renaissance

71%

Draw or Renaissance

51%

Winning margin

UMS de Loum wins by 2+

23%

Renaissance wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

UMS de Loum 1+ goals

72%

UMS de Loum 2+ goals

36%

UMS de Loum 3+ goals

14%

Renaissance 1+ goals

52%

Renaissance 2+ goals

17%

Renaissance 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)

69%

Renaissance (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMS de Loum at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.67 · 67 matches

Renaissance away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMS de Loum attack 0.87 + Renaissance defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Renaissance attack 0.81 + UMS de Loum defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

UMS de Loum scores more

49%

level

29%

Renaissance scores more

22%

UMS de Loum at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff