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UMS de Loum vs Panthère — Elite One 2019

UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
FT
1 – 2
Panthère
Panthère
7/7/2021Elite OneElite One · Round 10Stade de la Réunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

UMS de Loum39%
×Draw34%
Panthère28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UMS de Loum
0.96
Panthère
0.76

UMS de Loum creates 26% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 64 away

creates per match

UMS de Loum
0.87
Panthère
0.84

allows per match

UMS de Loum
0.67
Panthère
1.05

finishing

UMS de Loum+0.00on par
Panthère+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMS de Loum ↓

Panthère →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

UMS de Loum or draw
72%
UMS de Loum or Panthère
66%
Draw or Panthère
61%

Winning margin

UMS de Loum wins by 2+
14%
Panthère wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UMS de Loum 1+ goals
62%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
25%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
7%
Panthère 1+ goals
53%
Panthère 2+ goals
18%
Panthère 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
58%
Panthère (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMS de Loum at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.67 · 67 matches

Panthère away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMS de Loum attack 0.87 + Panthère defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Panthère attack 0.84 + UMS de Loum defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

UMS de Loum scores more
39%
level
34%
Panthère scores more
28%

UMS de Loum at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: UMS de Loum 1–2 Panthère

Panthère beat UMS de Loum 2-1 in Elite One on July 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de la Réunification in Douala.