UMS de Loum 2–0 Fovu Club: Result & Stats

UMS de Loum

FT

2 – 0

Fovu Club

4/15/2024

Elite One · Relegation Round - 4Stade Olembe Annexe A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

UMS de Loum39%

×Draw32%

Fovu Club29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UMS de LoumExpected goals in this matchFovu Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.86

UMS de Loum

1.04

Fovu Club

0.86

UMS de Loum creates 21% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 67 away

0.87

creates per match

1.06

0.67

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

UMS de Loum

0.87

Fovu Club

1.06

allows per match

UMS de Loum

0.67

Fovu Club

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMS de Loum ↓

Fovu Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

UMS de Loum or draw

71%

UMS de Loum or Fovu Club

68%

Draw or Fovu Club

61%

Winning margin

UMS de Loum wins by 2+

15%

Fovu Club wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

UMS de Loum 1+ goals

65%

UMS de Loum 2+ goals

28%

UMS de Loum 3+ goals

9%

Fovu Club 1+ goals

58%

Fovu Club 2+ goals

21%

Fovu Club 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)

57%

Fovu Club (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMS de Loum at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.67 · 67 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMS de Loum attack 0.87 + Fovu Club defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Fovu Club attack 1.06 + UMS de Loum defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

UMS de Loum scores more

39%

level

32%

Fovu Club scores more

29%

UMS de Loum at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff