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UMS de Loum vs Feutcheu — Elite One 2019

UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Feutcheu
Feutcheu
Unknown 71'
Unknown 90+1', 16'
12/31/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 11Stade de Bonamoussadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

UMS de Loum37%
×Draw33%
Feutcheu31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UMS de Loum
0.96
Feutcheu
0.85

UMS de Loum creates 13% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 57 away

creates per match

UMS de Loum
0.87
Feutcheu
1.04

allows per match

UMS de Loum
0.67
Feutcheu
1.04

finishing

UMS de Loum+0.00on par
Feutcheu+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMS de Loum ↓

Feutcheu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

UMS de Loum or draw
69%
UMS de Loum or Feutcheu
67%
Draw or Feutcheu
63%

Winning margin

UMS de Loum wins by 2+
14%
Feutcheu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UMS de Loum 1+ goals
62%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
25%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
7%
Feutcheu 1+ goals
57%
Feutcheu 2+ goals
21%
Feutcheu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
54%
Feutcheu (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMS de Loum at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.67 · 67 matches

Feutcheu away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMS de Loum attack 0.87 + Feutcheu defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Feutcheu attack 1.04 + UMS de Loum defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

UMS de Loum scores more
37%
level
33%
Feutcheu scores more
31%

UMS de Loum at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
71'
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UMS de Loum 1 – 2 Feutcheu

Feutcheu beat UMS de Loum 2-1 in Elite One on December 31, 2022.

Goals: ? (16', 71', 90+1').

The match was played at Stade de Bonamoussadi in Douala.