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UMS de Loum vs Eding Sport — Elite One 2019

UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
FT
1 – 0
Eding Sport
Eding Sport
4/22/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 21Stade de la Réunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

UMS de Loum38%
×Draw32%
Eding Sport29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UMS de Loum
1.00
Eding Sport
0.83

UMS de Loum creates 20% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 54 away

creates per match

UMS de Loum
0.87
Eding Sport
1.00

allows per match

UMS de Loum
0.67
Eding Sport
1.13

finishing

UMS de Loum+0.00on par
Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMS de Loum ↓

Eding Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

UMS de Loum or draw
71%
UMS de Loum or Eding Sport
68%
Draw or Eding Sport
62%

Winning margin

UMS de Loum wins by 2+
15%
Eding Sport wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UMS de Loum 1+ goals
63%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
26%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
8%
Eding Sport 1+ goals
56%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
20%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
57%
Eding Sport (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMS de Loum at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.67 · 67 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMS de Loum attack 0.87 + Eding Sport defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Eding Sport attack 1.00 + UMS de Loum defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

UMS de Loum scores more
38%
level
32%
Eding Sport scores more
29%

UMS de Loum at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UMS de Loum vs Eding Sport

UMS de Loum beat Eding Sport 1-0 in Elite One on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Réunification in Douala.