UMS de Loum 1–1 Aigle Royal: Result & Stats

UMS de Loum

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aigle Royal

5/2/2024

Elite One · Relegation Round - 6Stade Olembe Annexe A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

UMS de Loum45%

×Draw31%

Aigle Royal25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UMS de LoumExpected goals in this matchAigle Royal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.77

UMS de Loum

1.15

Aigle Royal

0.77

UMS de Loum creates 49% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 38 away

0.87

creates per match

0.87

0.67

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

UMS de Loum

0.87

Aigle Royal

0.87

allows per match

UMS de Loum

0.67

Aigle Royal

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMS de Loum ↓

Aigle Royal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

UMS de Loum or draw

75%

UMS de Loum or Aigle Royal

69%

Draw or Aigle Royal

55%

Winning margin

UMS de Loum wins by 2+

19%

Aigle Royal wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

UMS de Loum 1+ goals

68%

UMS de Loum 2+ goals

32%

UMS de Loum 3+ goals

11%

Aigle Royal 1+ goals

54%

Aigle Royal 2+ goals

18%

Aigle Royal 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)

65%

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMS de Loum at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.67 · 67 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMS de Loum attack 0.87 + Aigle Royal defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.15

Aigle Royal attack 0.87 + UMS de Loum defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

UMS de Loum scores more

45%

level

31%

Aigle Royal scores more

25%

UMS de Loum at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff