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Ümraniyespor vs Osmanlispor — 1. Lig 2018

Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Osmanlispor
Osmanlispor
12/15/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 15Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ümraniyespor47%
×Draw26%
Osmanlispor27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ümraniyespor
1.50
Osmanlispor
1.08

Ümraniyespor creates 39% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 52 away

creates per match

Ümraniyespor
1.55
Osmanlispor
1.10

allows per match

Ümraniyespor
1.06
Osmanlispor
1.46

finishing

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par
Osmanlispor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ümraniyespor ↓

Osmanlispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ümraniyespor or draw
73%
Ümraniyespor or Osmanlispor
74%
Draw or Osmanlispor
53%

Winning margin

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
23%
Osmanlispor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
78%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
44%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
19%
Osmanlispor 1+ goals
66%
Osmanlispor 2+ goals
29%
Osmanlispor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
63%
Osmanlispor (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ümraniyespor at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.06 · 125 matches

Osmanlispor away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ümraniyespor attack 1.55 + Osmanlispor defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Osmanlispor attack 1.10 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ümraniyespor scores more
47%
level
26%
Osmanlispor scores more
27%

Ümraniyespor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ümraniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Ümraniyespor 1–0 Osmanlispor

Ümraniyespor beat Osmanlispor 1-0 in 1. Lig on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu in İstanbul.