Ümraniyespor 5–1 Orduspor 1967: Result & Stats

Ümraniyespor

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Orduspor 1967

V. Klonaridis 81'

B. Arıcı 67'

M. Okutan 39'

E. Demir 6'

T. Glumac 3'

G. Eser 19'

11/1/2023

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundÜmraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ümraniyespor65%

×Draw18%

Orduspor 196717%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÜmraniyesporExpected goals in this matchOrduspor 1967

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.17

Ümraniyespor

2.42

Orduspor 1967

1.17

Ümraniyespor creates 107% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

2.58

creates per match

1.25

1.08

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Ümraniyespor

2.58

Orduspor 1967

1.25

allows per match

Ümraniyespor

1.08

Orduspor 1967

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Orduspor 1967+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ümraniyespor ↓

Orduspor 1967 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Ümraniyespor or draw

83%

Ümraniyespor or Orduspor 1967

82%

Draw or Orduspor 1967

35%

Winning margin

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+

42%

Orduspor 1967 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals

91%

Ümraniyespor 2+ goals

69%

Ümraniyespor 3+ goals

43%

Orduspor 1967 1+ goals

69%

Orduspor 1967 2+ goals

33%

Orduspor 1967 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)

79%

Orduspor 1967 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ümraniyespor at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Orduspor 1967 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ümraniyespor attack 2.58 + Orduspor 1967 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.42

Orduspor 1967 attack 1.25 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ümraniyespor scores more

65%

level

18%

Orduspor 1967 scores more

17%

Ümraniyespor at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ümraniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

6'

19'

39'

46'

46'

S. Keskin← K. Babamoğlu

46'

G. Gençel← K. Taşoğlu

46'

İ. Kayalı← G. Eser

46'

Ş. Kılıçaslan← B. Başyiğit

66'

B. Arıcı← A. Babacan

66'

V. Klonaridis← A. Bouali

67'

74'

77'

77'

81'

Statistics

ÜmraniyesporOrduspor

Overview

4Corners3

Discipline

1Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Ümraniyespor vs Orduspor 1967

Ümraniyespor beat Orduspor 1967 5-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 1, 2023.

Goals: T. Glumac (3'), E. Demir (6'), G. Eser (19'), M. Okutan (39'), B. Arıcı (67'), V. Klonaridis (81').

The match was played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu in İstanbul.

Ümraniyespor vs Orduspor 1967 — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: Ümraniyespor vs Orduspor 1967