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Ümraniyespor vs Manisa F.K. — 1. Lig 2018

Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
Preview
17:00
Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
11/29/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 16
Big match
46%
Ümraniyespor
model favours
46%26%28%

Ümraniyespor win just 26% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Ümraniyespor46%
×Draw26%
Manisa F.K.28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ümraniyespor
1.51
Manisa F.K.
1.13

Ümraniyespor creates 34% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 89 away

creates per match

Ümraniyespor
1.55
Manisa F.K.
1.20

allows per match

Ümraniyespor
1.06
Manisa F.K.
1.47

finishing

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par
Manisa F.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ümraniyespor ↓

Manisa F.K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ümraniyespor or draw
72%
Ümraniyespor or Manisa F.K.
74%
Draw or Manisa F.K.
54%

Winning margin

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
23%
Manisa F.K. wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
78%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
44%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
19%
Manisa F.K. 1+ goals
68%
Manisa F.K. 2+ goals
31%
Manisa F.K. 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
62%
Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ümraniyespor at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.06 · 125 matches

Manisa F.K. away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ümraniyespor attack 1.55 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.51

Manisa F.K. attack 1.20 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ümraniyespor scores more
46%
level
26%
Manisa F.K. scores more
28%

Ümraniyespor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ümraniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Manisa F.K. fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 3.2 expected)
  • Style contrast — Ümraniyespor play Defensively solid, Manisa F.K. Attack-heavy
  • Ümraniyespor outscore their xG (2.2 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Ümraniyespor
Defensively solid
Manisa F.K.
Attack-heavy
54%Possession54%
79%Pass accuracy79%
13.4Shots13.1
1.21xGBiggest gap3.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ÜmraniyesporManisa F.K.

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

4
Ümraniyespor
0
Draws
4
Manisa F.K.
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 50%
0–12–10–13–02–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Ümraniyespor
LWLDW
F.K.
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ümraniyespor face Manisa F.K. (1. Lig)

1. Lig returns with Ümraniyespor hosting Manisa F.K.. Match starts November 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.