Ümraniyespor 0–1 Manisa F.K.: Result & Stats

Ümraniyespor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Manisa F.K.

Dani Ramírez 74'

5/10/2025

1. Lig · Round 38Spoi̇nt İnşaat Ümrani̇yespor Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Ümraniyespor46%

×Draw26%

Manisa F.K.28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÜmraniyesporExpected goals in this matchManisa F.K.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.13

Ümraniyespor

1.51

Manisa F.K.

1.13

Ümraniyespor creates 34% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 89 away

1.55

creates per match

1.20

1.06

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Ümraniyespor

1.55

Manisa F.K.

1.20

allows per match

Ümraniyespor

1.06

Manisa F.K.

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ümraniyespor ↓

Manisa F.K. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ümraniyespor or draw

72%

Ümraniyespor or Manisa F.K.

74%

Draw or Manisa F.K.

54%

Winning margin

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+

23%

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals

78%

Ümraniyespor 2+ goals

44%

Ümraniyespor 3+ goals

19%

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals

68%

Manisa F.K. 2+ goals

31%

Manisa F.K. 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)

62%

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ümraniyespor at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.06 · 125 matches

Manisa F.K. away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ümraniyespor attack 1.55 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.51

Manisa F.K. attack 1.20 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ümraniyespor scores more

46%

level

26%

Manisa F.K. scores more

28%

Ümraniyespor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ümraniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Fofana

Manisa F.K. · M

8.2

Match Events

56'

D. Diallo← M. Kiprit

67'

S. Göksu← C. Soukou

73'

Dani Ramírez← B. Touré

74'

Dani Ramírez↳ M. Fofana

77'

Serkan Göksu

84'

Y. Sertkaya← J. Bardhi

84'

A. Bülbül← F. Apaydın

86'

E. Akgün← G. Minchev

90+2'

Demba Diallo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ÜmraniyesporManisa

Overview

63%Possession37%

14Total Shots12

2Corners8

12Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots12

4On Target2

7Off Target6

3Blocked4

9Inside Box5

5Outside Box7

Passing

63%Possession37%

542Total Passes308

472Accurate Passes224

87%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2