Ümraniyespor 3–0 Kardemir Karabukspor

Ümraniyespor

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kardemir Karabukspor

3/3/2019

1. Lig · Round 24Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ümraniyespor82%

×Draw12%

Kardemir Karabukspor6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÜmraniyesporExpected goals in this matchKardemir Karabukspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

0.62

Ümraniyespor

2.80

Kardemir Karabukspor

0.62

Ümraniyespor creates 352% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 17 away

1.55

creates per match

0.18

1.06

allows per match

4.06

creates per match

Ümraniyespor

1.55

Kardemir Karabukspor

0.18

allows per match

Ümraniyespor

1.06

Kardemir Karabukspor

4.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Kardemir Karabukspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ümraniyespor ↓

Kardemir Karabukspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ümraniyespor or draw

94%

Ümraniyespor or Kardemir Karabukspor

88%

Draw or Kardemir Karabukspor

18%

Winning margin

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+

62%

Kardemir Karabukspor wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals

94%

Ümraniyespor 2+ goals

76%

Ümraniyespor 3+ goals

52%

Kardemir Karabukspor 1+ goals

46%

Kardemir Karabukspor 2+ goals

13%

Kardemir Karabukspor 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)

93%

Kardemir Karabukspor (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ümraniyespor at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.06 · 125 matches

Kardemir Karabukspor away — creates 0.18, concedes 4.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ümraniyespor attack 1.55 + Kardemir Karabukspor defence 4.06 → ÷2 → 2.80

Kardemir Karabukspor attack 0.18 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Ümraniyespor scores more

82%

level

12%

Kardemir Karabukspor scores more

6%

Ümraniyespor at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Ümraniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff