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Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor — 1. Lig 2018

Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Giresunspor
Giresunspor
12/24/20231. Lig1. Lig · Round 17Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ümraniyespor48%
×Draw26%
Giresunspor26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ümraniyespor
1.52
Giresunspor
1.04

Ümraniyespor creates 46% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 68 away

creates per match

Ümraniyespor
1.55
Giresunspor
1.01

allows per match

Ümraniyespor
1.06
Giresunspor
1.50

finishing

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par
Giresunspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ümraniyespor ↓

Giresunspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ümraniyespor or draw
74%
Ümraniyespor or Giresunspor
74%
Draw or Giresunspor
52%

Winning margin

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
24%
Giresunspor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
78%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
45%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
20%
Giresunspor 1+ goals
65%
Giresunspor 2+ goals
28%
Giresunspor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
65%
Giresunspor (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ümraniyespor at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.06 · 125 matches

Giresunspor away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ümraniyespor attack 1.55 + Giresunspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Giresunspor attack 1.01 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ümraniyespor scores more
48%
level
26%
Giresunspor scores more
26%

Ümraniyespor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ümraniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ümraniyespor vs Giresunspor

Ümraniyespor beat Giresunspor 2-1 in 1. Lig on December 24, 2023.

The match was played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu in İstanbul.