Ümraniyespor 3–3 Gençlerbirliği S.K.

Ümraniyespor

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

T. Glumac 90+5'

M. Eser 71'

B. Əkinçiər 41'

S. Onur 84'

Amilton 63'

M. Mimaroğlu 56'

12/1/2024

1. Lig · Round 14Spoi̇nt İnşaat Ümrani̇yespor Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Ümraniyespor42%

×Draw26%

Gençlerbirliği S.K.31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÜmraniyesporExpected goals in this matchGençlerbirliği S.K.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.16

Ümraniyespor

1.40

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1.16

Ümraniyespor creates 21% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 89 away

1.55

creates per match

1.26

1.06

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Ümraniyespor

1.55

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1.26

allows per match

Ümraniyespor

1.06

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ümraniyespor ↓

Gençlerbirliği S.K. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ümraniyespor or draw

69%

Ümraniyespor or Gençlerbirliği S.K.

74%

Draw or Gençlerbirliği S.K.

58%

Winning margin

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+

20%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals

75%

Ümraniyespor 2+ goals

41%

Ümraniyespor 3+ goals

17%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals

69%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals

32%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)

58%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ümraniyespor at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.06 · 125 matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K. away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ümraniyespor attack 1.55 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.26 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ümraniyespor scores more

42%

level

26%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more

31%

Ümraniyespor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ümraniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

89

Amilton

Gençlerbirliği S.K. · M

7.9

Match Events

33'

S. Göksu← A. Đokanović

35'

Furkan Apaydın

36'

Tomislav Glumac

36'

Erhan ErentürkPenalty cancelled

41'

B. Əkinçiər

46'

M. Nalepa← E. Kemaloğlu

56'

M. Mimaroğlu↳ Amilton

63'

Amilton↳ M. Nalepa

68'

G. Altıparmak← M. Djitté

71'

M. Eser↳ C. Soukou

74'

J. Bardhi← B. Əkinçiər

75'

Oğuz Yıldırım

76'

F. Üzüm← M. Mimaroğlu

83'

M. Büyüksayar← C. Soukou

83'

S. Onur← M. Okyar

83'

M. Demir← Amilton

84'

S. Onur

88'

Bernardo Sousa

90+3'

Mustafa Eser

90+8'

Tomislav GlumacGoal confirmed

90+3'

Michał Nalepa

90+5'

T. Glumac↳ M. Büyüksayar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ÜmraniyesporGençlerbirliği

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots10

5Corners1

18Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots10

5On Target4

4Off Target4

1Blocked2

3Inside Box5

7Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

420Total Passes394

322Accurate Passes298

77%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls17

5Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2