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Ümraniyespor vs Gaziantep FK — 1. Lig 2018

Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
3/16/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 26Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ümraniyespor31%
×Draw25%
Gaziantep FK44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ümraniyespor
1.25
Gaziantep FK
1.53

Gaziantep FK creates 22% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ümraniyespor
1.55
Gaziantep FK
2.00

allows per match

Ümraniyespor
1.06
Gaziantep FK
0.94

finishing

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par
Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ümraniyespor ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ümraniyespor or draw
56%
Ümraniyespor or Gaziantep FK
75%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
69%

Winning margin

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
13%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
71%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
36%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
13%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
78%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
45%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
42%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ümraniyespor at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.06 · 125 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ümraniyespor attack 1.55 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gaziantep FK attack 2.00 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ümraniyespor scores more
31%
level
25%
Gaziantep FK scores more
44%

Gaziantep FK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Ümraniyespor 1–2 Gaziantep FK

Gaziantep FK beat Ümraniyespor 2-1 in 1. Lig on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu in İstanbul.