Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor

Ümraniyespor

Preview

16:00

Esenler Erokspor

8/23/2026

1. Lig · Round 3

38%

Esenler Erokspor

model favours

37%26%38%

Ümraniyespor win just 26% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

over 2.5 goals

56%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ümraniyespor37%

×Draw26%

Esenler Erokspor38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÜmraniyesporExpected goals in this matchEsenler Erokspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.39

Ümraniyespor

1.36

Esenler Erokspor

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 38 away

1.55

creates per match

1.71

1.06

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Ümraniyespor

1.55

Esenler Erokspor

1.71

allows per match

Ümraniyespor

1.06

Esenler Erokspor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ümraniyespor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ümraniyespor or draw

62%

Ümraniyespor or Esenler Erokspor

74%

Draw or Esenler Erokspor

63%

Winning margin

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+

17%

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals

74%

Ümraniyespor 2+ goals

39%

Ümraniyespor 3+ goals

16%

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

75%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

40%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)

49%

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ümraniyespor at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.06 · 125 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ümraniyespor attack 1.55 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ümraniyespor scores more

37%

level

26%

Esenler Erokspor scores more

38%

Esenler Erokspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Style contrast — Ümraniyespor play Defensively solid, Esenler Erokspor Possession-dominant
Ümraniyespor sit 16, Esenler Erokspor 3 in the table
Esenler Erokspor fall short of their xG (1.6 vs 2.0 expected)
Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals