Esenler Erokspor 0–1 Ümraniyespor: Result & Stats

Esenler Erokspor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ümraniyespor

G. Minchev 63'

12/9/2024

1. Lig · Round 15Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Esenler Erokspor48%

×Draw25%

Ümraniyespor27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esenler EroksporExpected goals in this matchÜmraniyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.12

Esenler Erokspor

1.59

Ümraniyespor

1.12

Esenler Erokspor creates 42% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 125 away

1.77

creates per match

1.16

1.08

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.77

Ümraniyespor

1.16

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.08

Ümraniyespor

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Ümraniyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw

73%

Esenler Erokspor or Ümraniyespor

75%

Draw or Ümraniyespor

52%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

25%

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

80%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

47%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

21%

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals

67%

Ümraniyespor 2+ goals

31%

Ümraniyespor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

64%

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.42 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ümraniyespor attack 1.16 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more

48%

level

25%

Ümraniyespor scores more

27%

Esenler Erokspor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

C. Topaloğlu

Ümraniyespor · G

8.3

Match Events

54'

Mücahit Albayrak

54'

Mücahit AlbayrakCard upgrade

63'

G. Minchev

64'

E. Korkmazoğlu← A. Hidayetoğlu

67'

J. Bardhi← A. Babacan

72'

D. Cavaré← C. Soukou

77'

İ. Furat← T. Kaçar

77'

J. Fernándes← Óscar Pinchi

82'

B. Çelik← B. Əkinçiər

86'

A. Toplu← R. Jack

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EsenlerÜmraniyespor

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots14

3Corners4

7Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots14

5On Target7

7Off Target7

0Blocked0

6Inside Box7

6Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

498Total Passes416

401Accurate Passes324

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls12

1Red Cards0

4Offsides2