Ümraniyespor 5–1 24 Erzincanspor: Result & Stats

Ümraniyespor

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

24 Erzincanspor

10/31/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundÜmraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ümraniyespor68%

×Draw18%

24 Erzincanspor15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÜmraniyesporExpected goals in this match24 Erzincanspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.04

Ümraniyespor

2.44

24 Erzincanspor

1.04

Ümraniyespor creates 135% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

2.58

creates per match

1.00

1.08

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Ümraniyespor

2.58

24 Erzincanspor

1.00

allows per match

Ümraniyespor

1.08

24 Erzincanspor

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

24 Erzincanspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ümraniyespor ↓

24 Erzincanspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Ümraniyespor or draw

85%

Ümraniyespor or 24 Erzincanspor

82%

Draw or 24 Erzincanspor

32%

Winning margin

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+

45%

24 Erzincanspor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals

91%

Ümraniyespor 2+ goals

70%

Ümraniyespor 3+ goals

43%

24 Erzincanspor 1+ goals

65%

24 Erzincanspor 2+ goals

28%

24 Erzincanspor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)

82%

24 Erzincanspor (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ümraniyespor at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

24 Erzincanspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ümraniyespor attack 2.58 + 24 Erzincanspor defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.44

24 Erzincanspor attack 1.00 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ümraniyespor scores more

68%

level

18%

24 Erzincanspor scores more

15%

Ümraniyespor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ümraniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff