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Umm Mughad vs Hay Al Wadi — Sudani Premier League 2025

Umm Mughad
Umm Mughad
FT
1 – 1
Hay Al Wadi
Hay Al Wadi
2/1/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 5Karima Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Umm Mughad49%
×Draw26%
Hay Al Wadi26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umm Mughad
1.53
Hay Al Wadi
1.04

Umm Mughad creates 47% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

creates per match

Umm Mughad
1.67
Hay Al Wadi
1.00

allows per match

Umm Mughad
1.08
Hay Al Wadi
1.39

finishing

Umm Mughad+0.00on par
Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umm Mughad ↓

Hay Al Wadi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Umm Mughad or draw
74%
Umm Mughad or Hay Al Wadi
74%
Draw or Hay Al Wadi
51%

Winning margin

Umm Mughad wins by 2+
25%
Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Umm Mughad 1+ goals
78%
Umm Mughad 2+ goals
45%
Umm Mughad 3+ goals
20%
Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals
65%
Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals
28%
Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Umm Mughad (draw refunded)
65%
Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umm Mughad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Hay Al Wadi away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umm Mughad attack 1.67 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.53

Hay Al Wadi attack 1.00 + Umm Mughad defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Umm Mughad scores more
49%
level
26%
Hay Al Wadi scores more
26%

Umm Mughad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Umm Mughad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Umm Mughad 1–1 Hay Al Wadi

Umm Mughad and Hay Al Wadi drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Karima Sports City Stadium in Karima.