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Umm Mughad vs Al-Hilal Omdurman II — Sudani Premier League 2025

Umm Mughad
Umm Mughad
FT
0 – 3
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
5/24/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Championship Group - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Umm Mughad22%
×Draw26%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II52%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umm Mughad
0.91
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
1.54

Al-Hilal Omdurman II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Umm Mughad
1.67
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
2.00

allows per match

Umm Mughad
1.08
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
0.14

finishing

Umm Mughad+0.00on par
Al-Hilal Omdurman II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umm Mughad ↓

Al-Hilal Omdurman II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Umm Mughad or draw
48%
Umm Mughad or Al-Hilal Omdurman II
74%
Draw or Al-Hilal Omdurman II
78%

Winning margin

Umm Mughad wins by 2+
7%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Umm Mughad 1+ goals
60%
Umm Mughad 2+ goals
23%
Umm Mughad 3+ goals
6%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II 1+ goals
79%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II 2+ goals
45%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Umm Mughad (draw refunded)
30%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umm Mughad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Al-Hilal Omdurman II away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umm Mughad attack 1.67 + Al-Hilal Omdurman II defence 0.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Al-Hilal Omdurman II attack 2.00 + Umm Mughad defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Umm Mughad scores more
22%
level
26%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II scores more
52%

Al-Hilal Omdurman II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al-Hilal Omdurman II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Umm Mughad vs Al-Hilal Omdurman II

Al-Hilal Omdurman II beat Umm Mughad 3-0 in Sudani Premier League on May 24, 2026.