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Umm Mughad vs Al Fallah — Sudani Premier League 2025

Umm Mughad
Umm Mughad
ABD
13:45
Al Fallah
Al Fallah
6/6/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Umm Mughad57%
×Draw26%
Al Fallah17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umm Mughad
1.54
Al Fallah
0.72

Umm Mughad creates 114% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

creates per match

Umm Mughad
1.67
Al Fallah
0.35

allows per match

Umm Mughad
1.08
Al Fallah
1.41

finishing

Umm Mughad+0.00on par
Al Fallah+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umm Mughad ↓

Al Fallah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Umm Mughad or draw
83%
Umm Mughad or Al Fallah
74%
Draw or Al Fallah
43%

Winning margin

Umm Mughad wins by 2+
30%
Al Fallah wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Umm Mughad 1+ goals
79%
Umm Mughad 2+ goals
45%
Umm Mughad 3+ goals
20%
Al Fallah 1+ goals
51%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
16%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Umm Mughad (draw refunded)
77%
Al Fallah (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umm Mughad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Al Fallah away — creates 0.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umm Mughad attack 1.67 + Al Fallah defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.54

Al Fallah attack 0.35 + Umm Mughad defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Umm Mughad scores more
57%
level
26%
Al Fallah scores more
17%

Umm Mughad at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Umm Mughad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Umm Mughad host Al Fallah

June 6, 2026: Umm Mughad take on Al Fallah in Sudani Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.