UMECIT 4–0 Costa del Este: Result & Stats

UMECIT

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Costa del Este

3/12/2023

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 9Cancha de fútbol de Atalaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

UMECIT41%

×Draw29%

Costa del Este30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UMECITExpected goals in this matchCosta del Este

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.00

UMECIT

1.21

Costa del Este

1.00

UMECIT creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 111 away

1.23

creates per match

1.02

0.98

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

UMECIT

1.23

Costa del Este

1.02

allows per match

UMECIT

0.98

Costa del Este

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UMECIT+0.00on par

Costa del Este+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMECIT ↓

Costa del Este →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

UMECIT or draw

70%

UMECIT or Costa del Este

71%

Draw or Costa del Este

59%

Winning margin

UMECIT wins by 2+

18%

Costa del Este wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

UMECIT 1+ goals

70%

UMECIT 2+ goals

34%

UMECIT 3+ goals

12%

Costa del Este 1+ goals

63%

Costa del Este 2+ goals

26%

Costa del Este 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

UMECIT (draw refunded)

57%

Costa del Este (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMECIT at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Costa del Este away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMECIT attack 1.23 + Costa del Este defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Costa del Este attack 1.02 + UMECIT defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

UMECIT scores more

41%

level

29%

Costa del Este scores more

30%

UMECIT at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UMECIT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff