Umeå W 2–3 Malmö FF W: Result & Stats | Elitettan

Umeå W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Malmö FF W

8/17/2024

Elitettan · Round 15Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Umeå W27%

×Draw23%

Malmö FF W51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Umeå WExpected goals in this matchMalmö FF W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.85

Umeå W

1.28

Malmö FF W

1.85

Malmö FF W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 13 away

2.26

creates per match

2.62

1.09

allows per match

0.31

creates per match

Umeå W

2.26

Malmö FF W

2.62

allows per match

Umeå W

1.09

Malmö FF W

0.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Umeå W+0.00on par

Malmö FF W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå W ↓

Malmö FF W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Umeå W or draw

49%

Umeå W or Malmö FF W

77%

Draw or Malmö FF W

73%

Winning margin

Umeå W wins by 2+

11%

Malmö FF W wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Umeå W 1+ goals

72%

Umeå W 2+ goals

37%

Umeå W 3+ goals

14%

Malmö FF W 1+ goals

84%

Malmö FF W 2+ goals

55%

Malmö FF W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Umeå W (draw refunded)

34%

Malmö FF W (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå W at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.09 · 57 matches

Malmö FF W away — creates 2.62, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå W attack 2.26 + Malmö FF W defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 1.28

Malmö FF W attack 2.62 + Umeå W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Umeå W scores more

27%

level

23%

Malmö FF W scores more

51%

Malmö FF W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Malmö FF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff