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Umeå W vs Häcken II W — Elitettan 2021

Umeå W
Umeå W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Häcken II W
Häcken II W
10/21/2023ElitettanElitettan · Round 24Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Umeå W63%
×Draw19%
Häcken II W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umeå W
2.25
Häcken II W
1.08

Umeå W creates 108% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 31 away

creates per match

Umeå W
2.26
Häcken II W
1.06

allows per match

Umeå W
1.09
Häcken II W
2.23

finishing

Umeå W+0.00on par
Häcken II W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå W ↓

Häcken II W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Umeå W or draw
83%
Umeå W or Häcken II W
81%
Draw or Häcken II W
37%

Winning margin

Umeå W wins by 2+
41%
Häcken II W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Umeå W 1+ goals
89%
Umeå W 2+ goals
65%
Umeå W 3+ goals
39%
Häcken II W 1+ goals
66%
Häcken II W 2+ goals
29%
Häcken II W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Umeå W (draw refunded)
79%
Häcken II W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå W at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.09 · 57 matches

Häcken II W away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå W attack 2.26 + Häcken II W defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.25

Häcken II W attack 1.06 + Umeå W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Umeå W scores more
63%
level
19%
Häcken II W scores more
17%

Umeå W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Umeå W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elitettan: Umeå W 1–0 Häcken II W

Umeå W beat Häcken II W 1-0 in Elitettan on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Umeå Energi Arena SOL in Umeå.