Umeå W 2–1 Elfsborg W: Result & Stats | Elitettan

Umeå W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Elfsborg W

4/13/2025

Elitettan · Round 1Umea Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Umeå W45%

×Draw24%

Elfsborg W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Umeå WExpected goals in this matchElfsborg W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.38

Umeå W

1.71

Elfsborg W

1.38

Umeå W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 18 away

2.26

creates per match

1.67

1.09

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Umeå W

2.26

Elfsborg W

1.67

allows per match

Umeå W

1.09

Elfsborg W

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Umeå W+0.00on par

Elfsborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå W ↓

Elfsborg W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Umeå W or draw

69%

Umeå W or Elfsborg W

76%

Draw or Elfsborg W

55%

Winning margin

Umeå W wins by 2+

24%

Elfsborg W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Umeå W 1+ goals

82%

Umeå W 2+ goals

51%

Umeå W 3+ goals

24%

Elfsborg W 1+ goals

75%

Elfsborg W 2+ goals

40%

Elfsborg W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Umeå W (draw refunded)

59%

Elfsborg W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå W at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.09 · 57 matches

Elfsborg W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå W attack 2.26 + Elfsborg W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Elfsborg W attack 1.67 + Umeå W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Umeå W scores more

45%

level

24%

Elfsborg W scores more

31%

Umeå W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Umeå W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff