Umeå W 1–3 Alingsås W: Result & Stats | Elitettan

Umeå W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Alingsås W

9/15/2024

Elitettan · Round 19Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Umeå W43%

×Draw24%

Alingsås W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Umeå WExpected goals in this matchAlingsås W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.42

Umeå W

1.67

Alingsås W

1.42

Umeå W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

2.26

creates per match

1.75

1.09

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Umeå W

2.26

Alingsås W

1.75

allows per match

Umeå W

1.09

Alingsås W

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Umeå W+0.00on par

Alingsås W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå W ↓

Alingsås W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Umeå W or draw

67%

Umeå W or Alingsås W

76%

Draw or Alingsås W

57%

Winning margin

Umeå W wins by 2+

22%

Alingsås W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Umeå W 1+ goals

81%

Umeå W 2+ goals

50%

Umeå W 3+ goals

23%

Alingsås W 1+ goals

76%

Alingsås W 2+ goals

41%

Alingsås W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Umeå W (draw refunded)

57%

Alingsås W (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå W at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.09 · 57 matches

Alingsås W away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå W attack 2.26 + Alingsås W defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.67

Alingsås W attack 1.75 + Umeå W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Umeå W scores more

43%

level

24%

Alingsås W scores more

33%

Umeå W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Umeå W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff