Umea FF 4–1 Täfteå: Result & Stats

Umea FF

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Täfteå

6/23/2024

Division 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 13Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Umea FF65%

×Draw18%

Täfteå17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Umea FFExpected goals in this matchTäfteå

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.22

Umea FF

2.52

Täfteå

1.22

Umea FF creates 107% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 65 away

2.76

creates per match

1.32

1.11

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Umea FF

2.76

Täfteå

1.32

allows per match

Umea FF

1.11

Täfteå

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Umea FF+0.00on par

Täfteå+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umea FF ↓

Täfteå →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Umea FF or draw

83%

Umea FF or Täfteå

82%

Draw or Täfteå

35%

Winning margin

Umea FF wins by 2+

44%

Täfteå wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Umea FF 1+ goals

92%

Umea FF 2+ goals

71%

Umea FF 3+ goals

45%

Täfteå 1+ goals

70%

Täfteå 2+ goals

34%

Täfteå 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Umea FF (draw refunded)

79%

Täfteå (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umea FF at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Täfteå away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.28 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umea FF attack 2.76 + Täfteå defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.52

Täfteå attack 1.32 + Umea FF defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Umea FF scores more

65%

level

18%

Täfteå scores more

17%

Umea FF at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Umea FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff