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Umea FF vs Karlslund — Ettan - Norra 2019

Umea FF
Umea FF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Karlslund
Karlslund
7/1/2020Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Umea FF36%
×Draw22%
Karlslund42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umea FF
1.69
Karlslund
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 31 away

creates per match

Umea FF
1.21
Karlslund
1.39

allows per match

Umea FF
2.32
Karlslund
2.16

finishing

Umea FF+0.00on par
Karlslund+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umea FF ↓

Karlslund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Umea FF or draw
58%
Umea FF or Karlslund
78%
Draw or Karlslund
64%

Winning margin

Umea FF wins by 2+
18%
Karlslund wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Umea FF 1+ goals
82%
Umea FF 2+ goals
50%
Umea FF 3+ goals
24%
Karlslund 1+ goals
84%
Karlslund 2+ goals
55%
Karlslund 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Umea FF (draw refunded)
46%
Karlslund (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umea FF at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.32 · 63 matches

Karlslund away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umea FF attack 1.21 + Karlslund defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.69

Karlslund attack 1.39 + Umea FF defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Umea FF scores more
36%
level
22%
Karlslund scores more
42%

Karlslund at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karlslund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Umea FF 2–1 Karlslund

Umea FF beat Karlslund 2-1 in Ettan - Norra on July 1, 2020.