Umea FF 0–2 IFK Östersund: Result & Stats

Umea FF

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

IFK Östersund

8/20/2023

Division 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 17Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Umea FF54%

×Draw20%

IFK Östersund26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Umea FFExpected goals in this matchIFK Östersund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.51

Umea FF

2.23

IFK Östersund

1.51

Umea FF creates 48% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 92 away

2.76

creates per match

1.91

1.11

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Umea FF

2.76

IFK Östersund

1.91

allows per match

Umea FF

1.11

IFK Östersund

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Umea FF+0.00on par

IFK Östersund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umea FF ↓

IFK Östersund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Umea FF or draw

74%

Umea FF or IFK Östersund

80%

Draw or IFK Östersund

46%

Winning margin

Umea FF wins by 2+

33%

IFK Östersund wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Umea FF 1+ goals

89%

Umea FF 2+ goals

65%

Umea FF 3+ goals

38%

IFK Östersund 1+ goals

78%

IFK Östersund 2+ goals

44%

IFK Östersund 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Umea FF (draw refunded)

67%

IFK Östersund (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umea FF at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

IFK Östersund away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.71 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umea FF attack 2.76 + IFK Östersund defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.23

IFK Östersund attack 1.91 + Umea FF defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Umea FF scores more

54%

level

20%

IFK Östersund scores more

26%

Umea FF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Umea FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff