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Umea FF vs Bergnäsets — Division 2 - Norrland 2019

Umea FF
Umea FF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bergnäsets
Bergnäsets
5/7/2023Division 2 - NorrlandDivision 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 6Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Umea FF62%
×Draw19%
Bergnäsets19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umea FF
2.35
Bergnäsets
1.22

Umea FF creates 93% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 65 away

creates per match

Umea FF
2.76
Bergnäsets
1.32

allows per match

Umea FF
1.11
Bergnäsets
1.95

finishing

Umea FF+0.00on par
Bergnäsets+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umea FF ↓

Bergnäsets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Umea FF or draw
81%
Umea FF or Bergnäsets
81%
Draw or Bergnäsets
38%

Winning margin

Umea FF wins by 2+
40%
Bergnäsets wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Umea FF 1+ goals
90%
Umea FF 2+ goals
68%
Umea FF 3+ goals
41%
Bergnäsets 1+ goals
70%
Bergnäsets 2+ goals
34%
Bergnäsets 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Umea FF (draw refunded)
77%
Bergnäsets (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umea FF at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Bergnäsets away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umea FF attack 2.76 + Bergnäsets defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.35

Bergnäsets attack 1.32 + Umea FF defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Umea FF scores more
62%
level
19%
Bergnäsets scores more
19%

Umea FF at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Umea FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norrland: Umea FF 1–0 Bergnäsets

Umea FF beat Bergnäsets 1-0 in Division 2 - Norrland on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Umeå Energi Arena SOL in Umeå.