Umeå FC 1–3 Sollentuna: Result & Stats

Umeå FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Sollentuna

11/5/2023

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 29Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Umeå FC47%

×Draw23%

Sollentuna30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Umeå FCExpected goals in this matchSollentuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.46

Umeå FC

1.86

Sollentuna

1.46

Umeå FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 112 away

1.96

creates per match

1.57

1.34

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Umeå FC

1.96

Sollentuna

1.57

allows per match

Umeå FC

1.34

Sollentuna

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Umeå FC+0.00on par

Sollentuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC ↓

Sollentuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Umeå FC or draw

70%

Umeå FC or Sollentuna

77%

Draw or Sollentuna

53%

Winning margin

Umeå FC wins by 2+

26%

Sollentuna wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Umeå FC 1+ goals

84%

Umeå FC 2+ goals

55%

Umeå FC 3+ goals

28%

Sollentuna 1+ goals

77%

Sollentuna 2+ goals

43%

Sollentuna 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC (draw refunded)

61%

Sollentuna (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

Sollentuna away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.76 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC attack 1.96 + Sollentuna defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sollentuna attack 1.57 + Umeå FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Umeå FC scores more

47%

level

23%

Sollentuna scores more

30%

Umeå FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Umeå FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff