Umeå FC 1–1 Orebro SK: Result & Stats | Superettan

Umeå FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Orebro SK

E. Bjorgolfsson 11'

K. Holmberg 64'

7/19/2025

Superettan · Round 15Umea Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Umeå FC46%

×Draw23%

Orebro SK30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Umeå FCExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.39

Umeå FC

1.77

Orebro SK

1.39

Umeå FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.68

creates per match

1.32

1.46

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Umeå FC

1.68

Orebro SK

1.32

allows per match

Umeå FC

1.46

Orebro SK

1.85

-1.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

Umeå FC-1.18scores less

Orebro SK-0.57scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Umeå FC or draw

70%

Umeå FC or Orebro SK

77%

Draw or Orebro SK

54%

Winning margin

Umeå FC wins by 2+

25%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Umeå FC 1+ goals

83%

Umeå FC 2+ goals

53%

Umeå FC 3+ goals

26%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

75%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

40%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC (draw refunded)

60%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.46 · 6 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.85 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC attack 1.68 + Orebro SK defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.77

Orebro SK attack 1.32 + Umeå FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Umeå FC scores more

46%

level

23%

Orebro SK scores more

30%

Umeå FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Umeå FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. Holmberg

Orebro SK · F

7.9

Match Events

11'

E. Bjorgolfsson↳ L. Vikgren

17'

Emmanuel Yeboah

30'

D. Bangala← J. Hedenquist

34'

L. Richtner← E. McCue

62'

A. Ghasem← D. Salihovic

62'

L. Shlimon← E. Andersson

64'

K. Holmberg↳ A. Yakoub

71'

S. Lindmark← E. Yeboah

71'

E. Cederblad← L. Marklund

78'

Daniel Persson

83'

L. Ohman← T. Olsson

83'

M. H. Haga← J. Voilas

90'

Jesper Modig

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UmeåOrebro

Overview

37%Possession63%

10Total Shots20

1.49Expected Goals (xG)1.64

4Corners5

12Fouls5

Shots

10Total Shots20

2On Target6

3Off Target5

5Blocked9

8Inside Box14

2Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

265Total Passes518

194Accurate Passes428

73%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls5

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides3