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Umeå FC vs Helsingborg — Superettan 2026

Umeå FC
Umeå FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Helsingborg
Helsingborg
E. Bjorgolfsson 15'
10/4/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 26Umea Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Umeå FC45%
×Draw24%
Helsingborg32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umeå FC
1.69
Helsingborg
1.39

Umeå FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Umeå FC
1.68
Helsingborg
1.31

allows per match

Umeå FC
1.46
Helsingborg
1.71

finishing

Umeå FC-1.18scores less
Helsingborg-0.13scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC ↓

Helsingborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Umeå FC or draw
68%
Umeå FC or Helsingborg
76%
Draw or Helsingborg
55%

Winning margin

Umeå FC wins by 2+
23%
Helsingborg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Umeå FC 1+ goals
82%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
50%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
24%
Helsingborg 1+ goals
75%
Helsingborg 2+ goals
40%
Helsingborg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC (draw refunded)
58%
Helsingborg (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.46 · 6 matches

Helsingborg away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC attack 1.68 + Helsingborg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Helsingborg attack 1.31 + Umeå FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Umeå FC scores more
45%
level
24%
Helsingborg scores more
32%

Umeå FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Umeå FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
W. LoeperHelsingborgHelsingborg · M
8.0

Match Events

15'
E. Bjorgolfsson↳ L. Marklund
52'
Ludvig Ohman
66'
E. Gigovic← S. Asoma
66'
M. Svensson← P. Chrupalla
71'
A. Martiatu Nordeman← L. Marklund
75'
Ture Görefält
80'
E. Cederblad← L. Ohman
80'
D. Ekman← D. Persson
80'
C. Ljung← W. Westerlund
89'
M. H. Haga← E. Bjorgolfsson
90+3'
Pontus Eriksson
90+1'
Mikael Harbosen Haga
90+1'
Johan Brattberg

Possession

40%Umeå

Shots

8Umeå

Pass accuracy

49%Umeå

Statistics

UmeåHelsingborg
Overview
40%Possession60%
8Total Shots16
1.15Expected Goals (xG)1.12
5Corners7
17Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots16
2On Target3
3Off Target11
3Blocked2
4Inside Box9
4Outside Box7
Passing
40%Possession60%
281Total Passes508
215Accurate Passes414
77%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
0Offsides4

Superettan: Umeå FC 1–0 Helsingborg

Umeå FC beat Helsingborg 1-0 in Superettan on October 4, 2025.

Goals: E. Bjorgolfsson (15').

Helsingborg controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Umea Energi Arena in Umea.