Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Umeå FC Akademi vs Umea FF — Division 2 - Norrland 2019

Umeå FC Akademi
Umeå FC Akademi
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Umea FF
Umea FF
9/27/2024Division 2 - NorrlandDivision 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 23Nolia 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Umeå FC Akademi23%
×Draw22%
Umea FF55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umeå FC Akademi
1.21
Umea FF
1.98

Umea FF creates 64% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 46 away

creates per match

Umeå FC Akademi
1.58
Umea FF
2.09

allows per match

Umeå FC Akademi
1.88
Umea FF
0.83

finishing

Umeå FC Akademi+0.00on par
Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC Akademi ↓

Umea FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Umeå FC Akademi or draw
45%
Umeå FC Akademi or Umea FF
78%
Draw or Umea FF
77%

Winning margin

Umeå FC Akademi wins by 2+
9%
Umea FF wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Umeå FC Akademi 1+ goals
70%
Umeå FC Akademi 2+ goals
34%
Umeå FC Akademi 3+ goals
12%
Umea FF 1+ goals
86%
Umea FF 2+ goals
59%
Umea FF 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC Akademi (draw refunded)
30%
Umea FF (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC Akademi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.88 · 77 matches

Umea FF away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC Akademi attack 1.58 + Umea FF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.21

Umea FF attack 2.09 + Umeå FC Akademi defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Umeå FC Akademi scores more
23%
level
22%
Umea FF scores more
55%

Umea FF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Umea FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norrland: Umeå FC Akademi 1–3 Umea FF

Umea FF beat Umeå FC Akademi 3-1 in Division 2 - Norrland on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Nolia 1 in Umeå.