Ulytau 1–0 Yelimay Semey: Result & Stats

Ulytau

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Yelimay Semey

G. Bugulov 6'

5/3/2026

Premier League · Round 8Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ulytau33%

×Draw26%

Yelimay Semey41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UlytauExpected goals in this matchYelimay Semey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.46

Ulytau

1.28

Yelimay Semey

1.46

Yelimay Semey creates 14% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 33 away

1.14

creates per match

1.64

1.27

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Ulytau

1.14

Yelimay Semey

1.64

allows per match

Ulytau

1.27

Yelimay Semey

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulytau+0.00on par

Yelimay Semey+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulytau ↓

Yelimay Semey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ulytau or draw

59%

Ulytau or Yelimay Semey

74%

Draw or Yelimay Semey

67%

Winning margin

Ulytau wins by 2+

14%

Yelimay Semey wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ulytau 1+ goals

72%

Ulytau 2+ goals

37%

Ulytau 3+ goals

14%

Yelimay Semey 1+ goals

77%

Yelimay Semey 2+ goals

43%

Yelimay Semey 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ulytau (draw refunded)

44%

Yelimay Semey (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulytau at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

Yelimay Semey away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulytau attack 1.14 + Yelimay Semey defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Yelimay Semey attack 1.64 + Ulytau defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ulytau scores more

33%

level

26%

Yelimay Semey scores more

41%

Yelimay Semey at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Yelimay Semey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

G. Bugulov↳ S. Malikaydar

31'

31'

32'

32'

41'

42'

65'

65'

M. Chalkin← G. Bugulov

66'

R. Murtazaev← I. Sviridov

66'

A. Bakhtiyarov← D. Palacio

66'

A. Zhaksylykov← F. Placca

66'

E. Berezkin← H. Ilic

71'

Abzal Taubay

77'

Z. Payruz← I. Miladinovic

83'

R. Serikkul← A. Smith

83'

R. Abylaykhan← H. Harada

90+3'

K. Nursultanov← A. Bougnone

90+3'

V. Afanasenko← K. Kishi

Ulytau4-2-3-1

Yelimay3-5-2

77

▼

Placca

11

▼

Sviridov

14

▼

Palacio

20

Ashirbek

44

Tyulyubay

23

▼

Ilic

18

Orazov

50

▼

4

3

99

1

3

25

28

⚽

▼

Bugulov

90

Martin

10

Taubay

13

A

Malikayda

14

▼

Harada

18

▼

Bougnone

7

▼

Kishi

11

▼

Smith

Manager: Nurken Mazbaev

65'▲M. Chalkin←▼G. Bugulov

83'▲R. Serikkul←▼A. Smith

83'▲R. Abylaykhan←▼H. Harada

90+3'▲K. Nursultanov←▼A. Bougnone

90+3'▲V. Afanasenko←▼K. Kishi

Ulytau substitutes

4Chalkin6Nursultanov9Serikkul12Afanasenko17Daniyarov19Mukanbetzhanov20Abylaykhan21Nurali22Kospayev40Shcherbakov69Maulenov78Zakirov

Manager: Andrey Karpovich

66'▲R. Murtazaev←▼I. Sviridov

66'▲A. Bakhtiyarov←▼D. Palacio

66'▲A. Zhaksylykov←▼F. Placca

66'▲E. Berezkin←▼H. Ilic

77'▲Z. Payruz←▼I. Miladinovic

Yelimay Semey substitutes

1Tsuprikov2Adambaev5Belancic7Murtazaev10Payruz17Bakhtiyarov19Zhaksylykov22Pivkin27Berezkin83Baygaliev88Baygaliev